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Last Updated : 4/30/2021 1:53:45 PM     Posted by : Acharya Pawan Chandra


All the planets (Sun, Venus & Saturn) are in Ashlasha nakshatra in Natal chart Mercury is the lord of 2ND & 5TH House.
Moon, Mercury & Ketu is in Saturn’s nakshatra in Natal chart in 3RD House SATURN is the lord of 9TH & 10TH House

Now here is the time to prove the importance of Indian Vedic Astrology sutras

64TH NAVAMSA is a specific longitudinal position of a planet in the Horoscope of a Man, an Industry, an Institute and above all in a Country. We do not know the Ascendant of India (BHARAT VARSH) YET One can calculate the events in the life cycle of a Man, an Industry, an Institute and a Country by taking his Birth chart. India was born on 15 August 1947, early in the beginning hours of the English day i.e., 00 hours : 00 minutes : 00 seconds.

Ascendant- longitudes are proportional to the time of birth (Birth of an event).
Exactly on 15 August 1947, early in the morning i.e., 00 hours : 00 minutes : 00 seconds the zodiac arc rising in the eastern HORIZON was TAURUS 07 amsa (degree). 45 kala and 54 vikala. The value differs in available different Astrology softwares or even in the PANCHANGS. BUT the time of Indian Independence is
15 August 1947
00 hours : 00 minutes : 00 seconds and proportional longitudes of the lagna was TAURUS 07 amsa (degree), 45 kala and 54 vikala (approximate longitude)

This time or the corrosponding Longitudal arc of the Ascendant plays a vital role in one’s life. Whenever a malefic Planet transit in the 8TH house of the Horoscope-exactly on the Lagna-longitudinal arc ((as here its 07 degree (amsa) 45 minutes (kala)), some unwanted events may happen in the life of that body (Man, an Institute or a Country). This event may be the death of that body or almost death like circumstances in the life of that body.


Just note down the degree position of the Ascendant and the Transiting KETU in the 8th house of India-Independence horoscope during BEGINNING OF CORONA in the INDIA.

Eighth house is the house of mass death. We all have witnessed this mass-death during Corona. BETTER IF WE SAY DURING TRANSIT OF KETU IN THE 8TH HOUSE OF INDIA-INDEPENDENCE CHART. THIS 8TH HOUSE IS THE HOUSE OF 64TH NAVAMSA.

One navamsa is equal to 3 degree 20 minutes zodiac arc. 64th navamsa zone means 210 degree to 240 degree. In Indias Independence chart, this zone is near about 217 degree (plus-minus) that means in between 210 degree to 240 degree. Exactly, when transiting Ketu was near about this degree (from March 2020 onwards) we all witnessed mass-death in INDIA because of CORONA.

The transit of a malefic planet (Its Ketu in this case) in the eighth house (64th navamsa) of the horoscope activates the negativity in the life of a body (a man, an Institute, an Industry or a Country). This negativity starts when a malefic planet in the 8th house inches closer to the longitudinal arc position of the ascendant. In India-Independence chart the longitudinal arc of the Ascendant is 07 deg. 45 mins. and transiting Ketu was on 07 deg. 45 secs. This conjunction was the actual and factual reason of spreading Corona in India in this period which begins almost in February-Mach 2020.

Already we have discussed this valueable sutra (64TH NAVAMSA) in one of our episode launched in the last few months when the famous Actor & Hero – RISHI KAPOOR of Bolywood died. The same sutra was active in his Horoscope during his death period.

Do watch that episode on Youtube

Just log in Acharya Sri Pawanchandra.

BUT so called Astrologer from different parts of this planet were busy in giving this and that prediction for the closer / ending period of the Corona pendemic.

Whatever rumors were spreading was because of the impact of transiting Rahu as Rahu is the significator of such rumours. News paper, Media and so called Astrologer of this planet helped in spreading these rumours.

Rahu was in GEMINI sign at that time. Gemini means publishing / corosponding units, group – discussions, gossips and predictions. Thus transit of Rahu in Gemini sign developed such an atmosphere. Beaware of this transit in future-almost in 2037-2038.

As soon as Rahu entered in Taurus sign in September 2020- all such rumours vanished. Only Gemini sign is the sign of communications / informations. September 2020 onwards all such activities vanished away. This was the ending period of such rumours not the Corona pendemic.

On the other side, each and every so called Astro-scientist were busy in making their conclusions as per their ability and approach.

An Astro-mathematician predicted that
Corona will end in May 2020 around 29th day of May.

A child’s prediction was viral in those days.
Millions / Billions people watched that episode.
He also predicted the ending period of Corona in May 2020.

Rest or the most of the Astrologer predictedthat Corona will end when Rah-Ketu will transit in the next sign that is in September 2020. Rahu was supposed to enter in Taurus sign in September 2020. Obviouly you can not stop the time (movement/motion). Rahu -– Ketu changed their axis in September. From Gemini-Sagittarius they moved in the zone of Taurus - – Scorpio axis’.

Whatsoever was supposed to happen,– it happened’. It happened during transit period of Ketu in the zone of 64th navamsa, in the Horoscope of Independent-India. It will not repeat now till another 18 years as Rahu-Ketu completes a revolution of this zodiac in 18 years only. Ailthough there will be some more planetary aspects activate and this and that negative impacts do effects this Universe BUT major impact may not be seen what we are experiencing now a days.

2020 + 18 = 2038
2038 + 18 = 2056
2056 + 18 = 2074
2074 + 18 = 2092
2092 + 18 = 2110
2110 + 18 + 2128
That means almost after 100 years in 2127 – 2128, another pendemic will spread on this planet.
If RAHU activates another negativity in that phase of time then this will happen in 2119-2120 again.
This pandemic repeats itself after every 100 years approximately as it happened in the previous centuries also on this planet Earth. Just look on these factual pics. collected from so called GOOGLE MAUSI

Beginning in 1720, an outbreak of bubonic plague in Marseille, France (known as The Great Plague of Marseille) killed an estimated 100,000 people in that city and surrounding provinces and towns. However, that particular outbreak was far from the first, last, or most severe instance of bubonic plague in history. In particular, the Black Death — a bubonic plague epidemic that hit Eurasia in the 14th century — is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe’s human population (up to 50 million people), primarily from 1347 to 1351.

The first of several cholera pandemics recorded in modern history spread from India to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Eastern Africa in the early 19th century. However, that pandemic did not begin in 1820. It persisted from 1817 until 1824 and six more cholera pandemics were charted over the following 150 years.


The so-called “Spanish flu” or 1918 flu pandemic (influenza caused by an H1N1 virus) spread in the early 20th century, killing upwards of 50 million people worldwide. (Despite the name, most modern scholarship suggests the pandemic did not actually originate in Spain.) Once again although that pandemic did encompass the year 1920, it began much earlier, continuing roughly from January 1918 to December 1920.

The COVID-19 corona virus disease outbreak that made this image of interest in 2020 was initially reported at the end of 2019, but it was not officially characterized as a pandemic by the WHO until March 2020.

submitted the factual research paper on
transit of planets and Pandemic impacts that too in advance.
much-much better than so called established astrologers

Intrestingly, we are almost on the same path. Aim & Achievement is same but Ideology & working mode is little different.

Corona vaccine may not be developed befoe January 2021’.
This prediction was based on research papers submitted by
Acharyasri Pawan Chandra
- alias Pawan acharya.


Sarurn was in Uttra Ashada nakshatra in March 2020. Saturn remained in this nakshatra from March – 2020 to January 2021. Lord of this nakshatra is SUN. Sun is the lord of LEO sign. Leo sign is in the 5th house of Kaal-purusha chakra/Horoscope (12TH HOUSE FROM 6TH HOUSE OF DISEASE i.e., relief from Diseases).
Fifth sign that is Leo is the sign of creation and thereafter presentation. Saturn is a slow moving planet. It delays the concerning project / study. Till the Saturn was in Uttra Ashada nakshatra; Corona vaccine can not be finalized and it happened accordingly. Only in January 2021, Corona vaccine finally comes on the floor. Saturn quit this nakshatra zone in January 2021 only.

Now Saturn is in Shravana nakshatra.

Lord of this sign is Moon. Sign of this planet is Cancer which is there in the third house of the India-Independence chart.

Third house is the house of associates, cooperating units, sister concerns, the people or the institutes we rely upon, Co-ordinators. Communications, DEMAND & SUPPLY etc. You must be observing the disturbance in and from these significators.

Cancer means 4th sign of Kaalpurusha, means the citizens or the common people. No one is ready to cooperate or understand the neccessity of the aam aadmi i.e., common people. Saturn is in Shravana 2 or 3rd pada. Plus it is going in the retrogression mode very soon. Briefly the process of balancing between Demand & Supply will take little more time than the expectation of the common people. Or such a circumstances may repeat itself while such an aspectual inter-relation will established in near future when Saturn will be in DIRECT mode.


The authorities has to adopt a policy to handle such circumstances. Cancer is a jala-tatva sign means the emotions of the masses. If you have to win the next election-you have to win the confidence of the masses.

Different phases of CORONA in the coming period. How it will happen v/s role of Planets in Transit. After all when will this Epedemic end?

The role of Ketu in the eighth house of India-Independence horoscope began in the February-March 2020’ Ketu was inching closer day by day towards 64th navamsa zone of India-Independence horoscope. Sixty fourth navamsa means in between 210 degree and 240 degree. Ketu form POORNA-ITHASAAL (CLOSE CONJUNCTION) with longitudinal arc in the eighth house of India-Independence horoscope in between March-April 2020.

In between this time only LOCKDOWN cycle incurred in our country.

Just see the above given tables of planetary aspects especially of KETU - during the period when Ketu was inching closer to 217 degree i.e. 07 deg. 45mins in the eighth house (Sagittarius sign) of India-Independence horoscope.

NOW- Ketu is now going away from the Ascendant aarc zone i.e. Ascendant’ - longitude (07 deg. 45 mins.) of India-Independence Horoscope.

Now Ketu is going away from the longitudinal arc position (07 deg. 45 mins.) in the eighth house (64th navamsa zone of India Independence Horoscope). The impact of Corona phobia is slowing down now i.e., after May 2020. The Government of India Just unlocked the previous position (Lockdown).

  • Unlock 1.0: 1 June 2020 – 30 June 2020 (30 days)
  • Unlock 2.0: 1 July 2020 – 31 July 2020 (31 days)
  • Unlock 3.0: 1 August 2020 – 31 August 2020 (31 days)
  • Unlock 4.0: 1 September 2020 - 30 September 2020 (30 days)
  • Unlock 5.0: 1 October 2020 - 31 October 2020 (31 days)
  • Unlock 6.0: 1 November 2020 - 30 November 2020 (30 days)
  • Unlock 7.0: 1 December 2020 - 31 December 2020 (31 days)
  • Unlock 8.0: 1 January 2021 - 31 January 2021 (31 days)
  • Unlock 9.0: 1 February 2021 - 28 February 2021 (28 days)
  • Unlock 10.0: 1 March 2021 - 31 March 2021 (31 days)
  • Unlock 11.0: 1 April 2021 - 30 April 2021 (23 days)

There was no negative visual inter relation between any kind of two factors especially in between RAHU OR KETU; SATURN OR RAHU - KETU and A MALIFIC PLANET & 64TH NAVAMSA ZONE. So unlocking period started. NOW QUESTION IS THIS – WHY SOME GENIUS WERE PLAYING THEIR OWN TRUMPET DURING SUCH A SENSITIVE PERIOD.

Different phases of CORONA in the coming period. How it will happen v/s role of Planets in Transit. After all when will this Epedemic end?


Phase 1 (25 March – 14 April)

On 24 March, that is the first day of the lockdown, nearly all services and factories were suspended. People were hurrying to stock essentials in some parts.] Arrests across the states were made for violating norms of lockdown such as venturing out for no emergency, opening businesses and also home quarantine violations. The government held meetings with e-commerce websites and vendors to ensure a seamless supply of essential goods across the nation during the lockdown period.] Several states announced relief funds for the poor and affected people] while the central government was finalising a stimulus package.

On 26 March, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a ₹170,000 crore (US$24 billion) stimulus package to help those affected by the lockdown. The package was aimed to provide food security measures for poor households through direct cash transfers, free cereal and cooking gas for three months. It also provided insurance coverage for medical personnel. On 27 March, the Reserve Bank of India announced a slew of measures to help mitigate the economic impacts of the lockdown.

Prior to the announcement of the nationwide lockdown, on 22 March, the government had announced that the Indian Railways would suspend passenger operations through 31 March. The national rail network has maintained its freight operations during the lockdown, to transport essential goods. On 29 March, the Indian Railways announced that it would start services for special parcel trains to transport essential goods, in addition to the regular freight service. The national rail operator also announced plans to convert coaches into isolation wards for patients of COVID-19. This has been described as the first time in 167 years that India's rail network had been suspended, although there was also Lamp lighting observed on 5 April 2020 during lockdown

On 5 April, citizens all over India cheered and showed solidarity with the health workers, police, and all those fighting the disease by switching off the electric lights at home for 9 minutes from 9:00 p.m. to 9:09 p.m. and observed lighting ; and flashing torchlight and mobile flashlight. As the end of the initial lockdown period came near, many state governments expressed their decision to extend it till the end of April. Among them were with some relaxations, West Bengal and Telangana. Towards the end of the initial period, the rate of growth of COVID infections in India had significantly slowed, from a rate of doubling every three days prior to the lockdown to one of doubling every eight days on 18 April.

Phase 1 (25 March – 14 April)





Phase 2 (15April – 03 May)

On 14 April, Modi extended the nationwide lockdown till 3 May, with a conditional relaxation promised after 20 April for the regions where the spread had been contained by then. He said that every town, every police station area and every state would be carefully evaluated to see if it had contained the spread. The areas that were able to do so would be released from the lockdown on 20 April. If any new cases emerged in those areas, lockdown could be re-imposed.

On 16 April, lockdown areas were classified as "red zone", indicating the presence of infection hotspots, "orange zone" indicating some infection, and "green zone" with no infections. The government also announced certain relaxations from 20 April, allowing agricultural businesses, including dairy, aquaculture and plantations, as well as shops selling farming supplies, to open. Public works programmes were also allowed to reopen with instructions to maintain social distancing. Cargo transportation vehicles, including trucks, trains and planes, would run. Banks and government centres distributing benefits would open as well. On 25 April, small retail shops were allowed to open with half the staff. Again social distancing norms were to be followed. On 29 April, The Ministry of Home Affairs issued guidelines for the states to allow inter-state movement of the stranded persons. States have been asked to designate nodal authorities and form protocols to receive and send such persons. States have also been asked to screen the people, quarantine them and to do periodic health checkups.

Phase 3 (04 - 17 May)

On 1 May, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and the Government of India further extended the lockdown period to two weeks beyond 4 May, with some relaxations. The country has been split into 3 zones: red zones (130 districts), orange zones (284 districts) and green zones (320 districts). Red zones are those with high corona virus cases and a high doubling rate, orange zones are those with comparatively fewer cases than red zone and green zones are those without any cases in the past 21 days. Normal movement is permitted in green zones with buses limited to 50 percent capacity. Orange zones would allow only private and hired vehicles but no public transportation. The red zones would remain under lockdown. The zone classification would be revised once a week.

Phase 4 (18 - 31 May)

On 17 May, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) extended the lockdown for a period for two weeks beyond 18 May, with additional relaxations. Unlike the previous extensions, states were given a larger say in the demarcation of Green, Orange and Red zones and the implementation roadmap. Red zones were further divided into two containment and buffer zones. The local bodies were given the authority to demarcate containment and buffer zones.


Unlock 1.0 (1 - 30 June)

The MHA issued fresh guidelines for the month of June, stating that the phases of reopening would "have an economic focus". Lockdown restrictions were only to be imposed in containment zones, while activities were permitted in other zones in a phased manner. This first phase of reopening was termed as "Unlock 1.0" and permitted shopping malls, religious places, hotels and restaurants to reopen from 8 June. Large gatherings were still banned, but there were no restrictions on inter-state travel. Night curfews were in effect from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. in all areas and state governments were allowed to impose suitable restrictions on all activities.

In future phases of reopening, further activities are to be permitted. In Phase II, all educational institutions are scheduled to reopen in July, pending consultations with state governments. In Phase III, easing of restrictions on international air travel, operation of metros and recreational activities (swimming pools, gymnasiums, theatres, entertainment parks, bars, auditoriums and assembly halls) would be decided upon in August.

Unlock 2.0 (1 - 31 July)

Phase II of Unlock began on 1 July under the guidelines and instructions of the MHA and the NDMA. Lockdown measures were only imposed in containment zones. In all other areas, most activities were permitted. Night curfews were in effect from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. in all areas. State governments were allowed to put suitable restrictions on all activities, but state borders remained open to all. Inter- and intrastate travel was permitted. Limited international travel was permitted as part of the Vande Bharat Mission. Shops were permitted to allow more than five persons at a time. Educational institutions, metros, recreational activities remained closed till 31 July. Only essential activities were permitted in containment zones, while maintaining strict parameter control and "intensive contact tracing, house-to-house surveillance, and other clinical interventions". Further guidelines regarding usage of Aarogya Setu and masks were reiterated.

Unlock 3.0 (1–31 August) )

Unlock 3.0 for August 2020 removed night curfews and permitted gymnasiums and yoga centres to reopen from 5 August. Educational institutions will remain closed till 31 August. All inter-and intrastate travel and transportation is permitted. Independence Day celebrations are permitted with social distancing. Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu imposed a lockdown for the whole month, while West Bengal imposed lockdowns twice a week. On 30 August the Delhi Metro started its operations with two metro lines

Unlock 4.0 (1–30 September)

On 29 August 2020, the Ministry of Home Affairs issued guidelines for activities permitted in Unlock 4.0. It said that "Lockdown shall remain in force in the Containment Zones till 30th September 2020". Outside the containment zone, however, some activities were given permission. Metro Rail was allowed to be reopened in graded manner from 7 September. Marriage functions with gatherings of up to 50 people and funereal/last rites ceremonies with of up to 20 people were permitted. Religious, entertainment, political, sports, academic functions and gatherings of up to 100 people were allowed. Face coverings/masks were made compulsory in public places, workplaces and during transport.

Unlock 5.0 (1–31 October)

On 30 September 2020, the Ministry of Home Affairs issued guidelines for activities permitted in Unlock 5.0. For schools it has a preference for online learning if possible, but States and Union Territories will be able to make those decisions from 15 October, in a graded manner. Lockdown shall remain in force strictly in the Containment Zones till 30 November 2020. Also, swimming pools being used for training of sportsperson would be allowed to open. Cinema halls, that had remained close all this while, could finally be opened from 15 October 2020, with a 50% of their seating capacity. On 3 November the Government of Kerala opened its tourism sector by reopening hill stations, beaches, national park and inter-state public transport movement

The Government Of India has decided to open all educational institutions by January 2021 including schools and colleges and universities across India. The Government of Kerala has decided to open its school from December 2020.

Unlock 6.0 (1–30 November

On 27 October 2020, the Ministry of Home Affairs issued guidelines for activities permitted in Unlock 6.0. The Ministry of Home Affairs did not make any new changes to the existing Unlock 5.0 guidelines in its latest instructions for another set of unlocking and said that they would continue to be implemented in the month of November too. Also, a handful of states have allowed opening up of more activities outside containment zones and announced partial reopening of schools. Lockdown has been enforced time and again in spite of attempts to permanently move towards an unlock phase. The government of India has extended the ban on scheduled international flights till January 31.


Food delivery services were banned by several state governments despite the central government's approval. Thousands of people emigrated out of major Indian cities, as they became jobless after the lockdown. Following the lockdown, India's electricity demand fell down to a five-month low on 28 March 2020. Many states were keen on opening up liquor shops during the lockdown which was finally allowed in the 3rd phase beginning on 4 May. Reports of a surge in illicit liquor sales and most importantly, drying up of revenue from liquor sale was the main stimulation. Due to the lockdown, more than 350 deaths were reported as of 10 May, with reasons ranging from starvation, suicides, exhaustion, road and rail accidents, police brutality and denial of timely medical care. Among the reported deaths, most were among the marginalised migrants and labourers.

Economic Impact

Main article: Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India India had already been experiencing a prolonged economic slowdown. The GDP growth rate had fallen from 8.2% in January–March 2018 to 3.1% in January–March 2020. In the first quarter of the financial year 2020-2021, this number went into negative. The GDP growth rate for April–June 2020 was -23.9%, which happened to be the worst ever in history. Crucial parameters like manufacturing, construction, trade, hotel industry saw a decline and slid into negative. Manufacturing growth at -39.3%, Mining growth at -23.3%, Construction growth at -50%, Trade & hotel industry growth at -47%.

Migrant workers

Main article: Indian migrant workers during the COVID-19 pandemic Migrant workers stand in a queue for food at Delhi Government school during COVID-19 lockdown at Delhi

With factories and workplaces shut down, millions of migrant workers had to deal with the loss of income, food shortages and uncertainty about their future. Following this, many of them and their families went hungry. While government schemes ensured that the poor would get additional rations due to the lockdown, the distribution system failed to be effective.
With no work and no money, thousands of migrant workers were seen walking or bicycling hundreds of kilometres to go back to their native villages. Many were arrested for violating the lockdown and some died of exhaustion or in accidents on the roads.
On 29 March 2020, the government ordered landlords to not demand rent and employers to pay wages without deduction. It also announced that those who violated the lockdown were to be sent to government-run quarantine facilities for 14 days.
In late March, the Uttar Pradesh government decided to arrange buses at Delhi's Anand Vihar bus station to take the migrants back to their villages for free. Migrants across the country remained stranded till the last week of April, when the state governments were finally permitted by the central government to operate buses, but not trains.
On 1 May 2020, the central government allowed the Indian Railways to launch "Shramik Special" trains for the migrant workers and others stranded. Due to lack of coordination between originating states and railways, there were reports claiming that migrants were being charged for the train tickets. The government faced criticism from the opposition. The Railways later clarified that it was bearing 85% of the total cost of running and the rest 15% which makes up the ticket fare was being borne by the originating states.
Despite the launching of special trains and buses by the government, the migrant workers chose to either travel together in large groups. They did not wait their turn to board the government-arranged transport, mainly due to starvation and eagerness to reach their homes soon. Additionally, they felt that going back to their hometowns; they could return to farming and take up small jobs under the MNREGA.
On 26 May 2020, the Supreme Court admitted that the problems of the migrants had still not been solved and that there had been "inadequacies and certain lapses" on the part of the governments. It thus ordered the Centre and States to provide free food, shelter and transport to stranded migrant workers.

Food supply chain

The order issued by the Home Ministry on 24 March allowed the functioning of shops dealing with food items as well as the manufacturing units and transportation of "essential goods". However, the lack of clarity on "essential goods" meant that the policemen on the streets stopped workers going to factories and the trucks carrying food items. Food industries also faced shortages of labour because the workers were unable to reach workplaces and the factory managers faced the fear of legal action. All these factors combined to result in shortages and a raise in the prices of food items. By the first week of April, essential industries such as growing, harvesting and food deliveries were allowed to operate.


On 26 March 2020, the Indian government announced a relief package of $22.6 billion to assist the poor population hit economically by the COVID-19 pandemic. The plan was to benefit the migrant workers through cash transfers and initiatives for food security. However, on 9 April 2020, economists and activists argued that a significant proportion of the affected population was unable to avail the facilities. Only those registered with the federal food welfare scheme were able to secure benefits.
According to a Government of India report filed with the Supreme Court of India, as of 7 April, state governments operated 22,567 relief camps for stranded migrant workers, of which 15,541 camps (amounting to 68% of all) were operated by Kerala, 1,135 camps by Maharashtra, 178 camps by Tamil Nadu and smaller numbers by other states. Non-governmental organisations were operating 3,909 camps.
On 12 May 2020, Narendra Modi announced that the government would provide 20 trillion rupees ($266 billion) in support package in fiscal and monetary measures to support the economy.

Impact on environment

Rivers have become cleaner as industries are closed due to the lockdown. The quality of air had significantly improved during the lockdown.


A poster for spreading awareness in India about the purpose of lockdown

People were seen breaching the lockdown and not following social distancing by crowding in vegetable markets in some places. On 29 March, Prime Minister Modi advised against this, urging people to stay home in his Mann Ki Baat radio address. On 27 March 2020, the police arrested 8 people and registered a complaint against 150 people in Hardoi for gathering at a mosque. On 2 April 2020, thousands of people assembled at temples in various parts of West Bengal defying the lockdown for celebrating Rama Navami. 12 members of Tablighi Jamaat were arrested on 5 April 2020 in Muzaffarnagar for defying the lockdown and organising an event. A priest in Andhra Pradesh was arrested for defying the lockdown and organizing a gathering of 150 people in a church. According to a study at Shiv Nadar University, India could have witnessed a surge of 31,000 cases of disease between 24 March and 14 April without lockdown. A group of researchers at the University of Oxford who tracked the governmental policy measures to counter the pandemic rated India's lockdown as one of the most stringent in the world, scoring "100 out of 100" on their tracker. They noted that India implemented school closures, border closure, travel bans etc. but they said it was too early to measure their success in containing the pandemic. Shamika Ravi from Brookings Institution in India has noted that the growth rate of the pandemic has slowed from that of doubling every three days before the lockdown to doubling every six days by 6 April. It was derailed in the intervening period by the Tablighi Jamaat super spreader event in Nizamuddin. By 25 April, it had further slowed to a rate of doubling every twelve days. In a routine press briefing on 22 May, Dr VK Paul, chairman of the national task force on COVID-19, along with officials from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, announced that the growth rate of new cases came down to 5.5% on 15 May from 22.6% on 3 April. The doubling rate of cases stood at 13.5 days. The death rate decreased to 5.5% from 48.1% on 5 April.

Based on estimation models from various independent sources and MoSPI it was predicted that lockdown (1.0 + 2.0) helped avert 14-29 lakh cases and 37,000-78,000 deaths till 15 May. Among various estimation models presented at the briefing the one by Boston Consulting Group showed that 1.2-210,000 lives were saved and 36-70 lakh cases were averted due to the lockdown till 15 May. Another model by Public Health Foundation of India predicted that 78,000 deaths were averted during the period.


Henk Bekedam, WHO Representative to India, praised the response describing it as "timely, comprehensive and robust".[2] WHO executive director, Mike Ryan said that lockdowns alone will not eliminate corona virus. He said that India must take necessary measures to prevent a second and third wave of infections. On 3 April 2020, Dr David Nabarro, WHO's special envoy on the disease, said that the "Lockdown in India was early, far-sighted and courageous" and was better than waiting for another 3 or 4 weeks.

In late March, two researchers from the University of Cambridge came up with a new mathematical model that predicts a flat 49-day countrywide lockdown or sustained lockdown with periodic relaxation extending over two months may be necessary to prevent COVID-19 resurgence in India. According to The Economist, the lockdown was "all but certain to have exacerbated" the devastation of the pandemic.

The Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP) issued a report in late March, in collaboration with researchers from Johns Hopkins University and Princeton University, where it said that a national lockdown is not "productive" and could cause "serious economic damage". It advocated state-level lockdowns in the most affected states. Its models predicted that in the best case scenario, a peak of one million hospitalisations would be encountered in early June. In an op-ed in The New York Times, the CDDEP director Laxminarayan explained that if the national lockdown finds good compliance, it would reduce the peak infections in early May by 70 to 80 percent, but still 1 million would require hospitalisation and critical care. He further hypothesised; If the lockdown was not imposed the number of critical patients would have reached 5-6 million. The CDDEP released another report on 20 April, again in collaboration with researchers from Johns Hopkins University and Princeton University. This report discussed the "potential impact of the lockdown". The study concluded that the lockdown would help in significantly slowing the spread of COVID-19 in the country. It said that the lockdown would buy the government critical precursory time to expand COVID-19 healthcare infrastructure, by keeping the hospitalisation rates in check and preventing the overwhelming of existing healthcare facilities. The study also said that the lockdown measures like physical distancing, ban on social gatherings and movement restrictions would further delay and reduce the peak of infections and hospitalisation.

Economist Jean Drèze stated that the lockdown had been "almost a death sentence" for the underprivileged of the country, in an interview with News18. He went on to say, "The policies are made or influenced by a class of people who pay little attention to the consequences for the underprivileged".

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